Late 1990s have witnessed a significant growth of interest in issues related to Estonia’s future. Visions of development and strategies have started to be created in earnest in several areas. There are at least two reasons underlying this process:

- Rapid, yet unstable developments in the economic and social environment;

- Abandonment of the idea of a liberal market economy as a phenomenon straightening all things out by its very nature.

As part of strategical planning the scenario method has been used. For instance, preparatory work for spacial planning included drawing up of Estonia’s economic development scenarios up to the year 2010. The same applies to education where education scenarios were worked out within the process of designing the education strategy.

Scenarios as descriptions of probable alternative options for the future have, apart from being instruments for designing strategies, their own - primarily heuristic - value, which enables to identify key factors (driving forces) relevant for the future, to analyze, in particular, probable consequences of the decisions made in the field under discussion.

1. EDUCATION SCENARIOS

Cohesion, consolidation of the society characterizes the society insofar as it operates as a factor uniting or dividing people and groups (different communities, circles), as a force attracting and involving or discouraging and repulsing.

Exclusive society is strongly polarized and corporate; those who have made it will be opposed to those lagging behind, "the useless horses being shot". There is no businesslike dialog between different interest groups and the people, where the interests of all parties are taken into account; prevalent are stiff relations of competition. The level of trust is low, the officialdom is opposed to the people. The society as a whole is characterized by political passivity, civic undertakings do not have much effect on the organization of the life of community.

Inclusive society has a high level of cohesion and a strong middle stratum, there are relatively few lagging behind, the top actors are not opposed to the rest. Dominating are relations of cooperation and learning from one another, also between people and groups with different viewpoints and of different position. There is a strong imprint of a positive Estonian identity. Public sector is effective and transparent. Non-governmental organizations are advanced and influential, the civic associations play an essential role in making democratic decisions, when organizing the life of community.

The capacity for renewal of the society is characterized by the level of innovation and perseverance, that is: either one implements new ideas, technologies and skills, making the maximum use of opportunities (within the whole world), anticipating problems and avenues of development (proactive society, capable to follow up), or else the goal set is survival, making do with what is available, the problems are solved after they have arisen (the reactive society).

The development of a society possessing high capacity for renewal involves a rapid influx and spread of hightech innovations, conscientious promotion of innovations, including the testing of groundbreaking inventions and new qualities, the capacity and will to learn. Of particular importance to the society are strategies of innovation and the development activity, prevalent is the philosophy of beautiful and success; the phosphorite war and the "singing revolution" are remembered as an example of the role of Estonia as a pathfinder, of "catching hold of the miracle". The notion "Estonia the Pathfinder" has become a trade mark.

The innovation of a society with little capacity for renewal is low, dominant are economic "realism" and narrow utilitarianism, the level of aspirations is predominantly low, the trust in oneself and the level of creativity are dwindling, one tends to compare oneself with someone even worse off. Problems and risks are likely to be circumvented, the new ideas, originating from outside meet with mistrust, the level of self-criticism is low, it is hard for one to find his bearings in the context of future and past, experimenting is left to others - one tends to use the solutions that have been found expedient somewhere sometime.

Four visions of Estonian education in 2015 (K. Loogma, R. Ruubel, V. Ruus, E-S. Sarv,R. Vilu, 1998)

A Nation-centered society and traditional school. The opportunities brought about by globalisation trends are not used, identity and based on this social integration are

centered on the nation state. Predominant is the traditional education paradigm and a closed nation-centered system of education. Access to education, especially on lower levels, is good and enrolment in educational institutions is high. Developmental activities follow the Nordic model. The curricula emphasise the development of basic skills, gaining and transfer into Estonia the knowledge and know-how already present in the world. The development of multi-intelligence, self-motivating learner and the idea of life-long learning by the end of the basic school are not aimed at. The predominantly passive learning environment and transfer of information technology into education fall short of stimulating any major innovations in education and society as a whole. There is an open conflict between the demands of the labour market and the output of the education system, in particular as concerns the global labour market. Education is mainly financed from the state budget. The decreasing numbers of pupils in basic schools (by 2005, and 2010, respectively) are used as an opportunity to increase investments per pupil and accordingly, improve the quality of teaching. The education system ensures a comparatively cohesive, yet neither a forward-looking nor an innovation-driven society.

B. Corporate society and endless education reforms. The uncertainty and conflicting interest prevailing in the society are carried over to the education system. New ideas find it difficult to get rooted, an innovative and success-oriented society fails to develop, the society’s resources of energy are channelled into dealing with competitive relations. The education sphere is characterised by the lack of ideological orientation, prevalent is a mixture of Soviet-period ideas and market-dictated values. No agreement has been reached as to Estonia’s own educational ideology. One can feel the presence of a wish to have a school typical of a welfare society, in practice, however, the models appropriate to a liberal society are being followed with no third sector’s compensatory mechanism in operation. Observable are conflicts between curricular used on different levels, the general principles stated in them and the study programmes, and the curricula oriented toward "pure" knowledge or practical application. Education-related problems accumulate, solutions, however, are postponed due to indecision. Drop-outs are numerous, economic and regional inequalities continue playing their selective role. The per capita system is maintained and the decrease in the number of pupils gives rise to the brain drain from the education system. The higher the level of education, the more powerful the selection in education. The selection process is further strengthened by adult education. The multi-cultural environment is ignored, the integration of the Estonian- and the Russian-language schools occurs on a self-regulating basis. The system fails to reproduce pedagogical resources. The labour market suffers from by a permanent shortage intelligent development-oriented labour.

C. Strongly polarised society and market-focused education and élite schools

Education is treated as resource of the individual and the education system as renderer of the education service. Those in possession of bigger mental, material, etc resources can buy a better service. The education system has split into two: the education for the élite and the education for the masses which penetrates all the levels of education starting from the elementary. A dream scheme - élite nursery schools – élite schools – a good-reputation university – has become a reality. The curricula are heavily biased toward individual performance and competition, universities toward the ability to compete on the international level. Élite schools outperform the ordinary ones in terms of contemporary delivery of education and teaching methods, the significantly more advanced learning environment and better-qualified teaching staff. In education, an increasing role besides government resources is played by private and foreign capital, which however, contributes currently rather toward elitarism. The school network is developing under the struggle for existence which gives a further boost to the deepening regional inequalities. A strong private sector and extensive institutional development in education, however, provide for greater flexibility which acts to some some extent as a compensatory mechanism for inequalities. The mutually enhancing polarization mechanisms fail to secure sustainable human development, and the opportunities for life-long learning are not equally accessible to everybody. The labour market is strongly polarized giving education contradicting signals. Only the graduates of best élite schools are able to successfully compete on global labour markets and in well-performing multinational companies.

D. Interactive society and learning Estonia

The precondition for a learning society is the emergence of efficient cooperation networks of different institutions and sectors (including, as a key element, electronic networks), critical analyses of different situations, ability to solve problems and efficient use of contradictions in the capacity of a factor stimulating novel solutions, as well as tolerance of differences in opinion. Human capital constitutes national wealth and education national value. Political forces and third sector actors have come to an agreement concerning the basic principles of development of education. Movement in the direction of balanced sustainable development has been consciously chosen and the national education model has been synthesized. Education has thanks to the institutionalisation of new forms of education and initiatives become the fundamental idea of the society. The curricula focus on generating new knowledge within the learning process, the development of curricula has been turned into a system. Radical changes in the education paradigm and the learning environment are increasingly based on the public - private - third-sector - partnership, interaction between different values, and efficient use of opportunities created by the transfer of information technology in education. Financing of education is based on a flexible multi-source multi-channel model as a combination of funds coming from different sectors and international donors (earmarked funds, foundations), etc. Systematically functioning cooperation mechanisms between education and the labour market have been created.

2. CONCLUSIONS OF SCENARIOS

1. The "sprouts" all of the scenarios are, in principle, present in society.

Corporative development can be dealt with as an trend scenario which can be either most probable or a transition scenario leading to some other path of development or to a certain combination thereof. The lack of clarity in educational ideology and the education system’s failure to reproduce itself shift society in the direction of corporative development; the closed nature of the education system shift it in the direction of traditional school; the manifest in education ineqalities and the deepening economic and regional inequalities - in the direction of a polarized society.

2. As a positive alternative for the future is a vision of Estonia as a learning society. The general preconditions for the realisation of this type of society embody primarily an integrated and innovation-oriented/innovative society, incl a changed/broadened understanding of education, learning, teaching and learners themselves. A learning society is dealt with as a normative scenario, i.e. the probable development in the direction of a learning society can be treated as the strategic goal of educational and societal development and the basis of evaluation of the developments and the decisions made in accordance with the criteria following from it.

3. A learning society as a normative model of education and societal development has been arrived at in several treatments of the future, including programmatic documents of the European Union. In them, a link is created between sustainable development as the equivalent of progress in the modern sense of the word and education. Learning, at that, is ascribed the central role in ensuring the sustainable nature of development.

4. Informal education suggests some directions that can be treated as positive, as premises taking us closer to a learning society (Education at a glance: OECD indicators; 1995, Education in Estonia. Statistical Directory; 1990, R. Neudorf, V. Ruus, 1995)

:

• high uniform enrolment in educational institutions and high motivation to learn;
• endeavour at a broad-based (secondary) education and avoidance of early specialization: preference given to general education secondary schools/gymnasia by basic school leavers, and programmes in vocational schools enabling to gain general secondary education which leaves the door of universities open;
• great and increasing numbers of secondary school graduates pursing studies at higher levels of education and massive-scale access to university education seen by the early 1990s mean ripening of conditions for the emergence of practically universal post-secondary-school education meaning that university and adult education start playing even a more critical role in society than before.

5. The conclusions following from an adult training study undertaken by researchers L. Helemäe, E.Saare, R.Vöörmann, (the Institute of International and Social Studies) demonstrate pretty clearly the existence of an open conflict between the current situation in adult training and the idea of a learning society, i.e. life-long learning which is used to identify options for sustainable development of the humankind and society in the future.

Participation in adult training is limited and extremely variegated across different age groups whereby it rather contributes toward the inequalities originating in formal education and society. The motivation to learn among older age groups is due to alarmingly old-fashioned stereotypes very low. It would be more appropriate to speak of the age groups 40 and up as of the excluded. The lack of resources and traditional, obsolete ideas of learning and education make adult training not readily accessible to those who need it most. Neither do they help compensate for the inequalities generated in society and, in particular, by the education system. This further strengthens the position of the elite (i.e. increases the opportunities for those who have them anyway).

6. The trends leading toward a learning society in society/formal education are largely based on self-regulating processes (Ruus, V, Loogma,K, 1998). Among them, the generally high value set on education, on the one hand, and the fear to become a loser in the toughening competition, on the other. Decisions made in the education policy should support and not suppress them. For instance, the position taken by some educational authorities relating to cuts in the number of places in general secondary schools to compel learners to decide in favour of vocational schools sounds rather alarming. Such a decision would destroy some of the premises necessary for the development of a learning society, i.e. the emergence of massive-scale higher education.

7. There is a need to further elaborate the concept of a learning society provided a learning society is approved of as a normative model of development. There are at least two reasons for this:

(1) Despite the existence of a notion of a learning society the concept has not been elaborated sufficiently. It currently exists as a metaphor, a promulgated ideal which fails to provide information to policy makers necessary for adopting political resolutions and to educational authorities for shaping strategical decisions in the educational policy.

(2) Another problem emerging in connection with a learning society as a thesis of development concerns the society’s situation and the country’s level of development. A learning society is mainly talked about in the context of post-industrialist development in advanced societies (mainly, OECD member states). Estonia’s

potential of development and situation of departure is very different from that of well-functioning market economies. This, in turn, means that Estonia needs a tailored to its conditions model of a learning society.

8. The most important education-related mechanisms directing society and education to one or another path of development, are, in our opinion, the following:

1) ideology of education; 2) financing of education; 3) curricular together with criteria for the quality of education. The key decisions in the educational policy are primarily associated with reaching a social consensus in regard to such an ideology of education (a la whether education is a national resource or a service rendered whose quality is determined by the availability of individual resources) that would promote the idea of sustainable development of society and the nation.

What else is needed is the development of a system of continuous innovation via the improvement of the curricular, flexible financing of education, an ongoing dialogue between education and the labour market, and the reproduction of pedagogical resources.

The dramatic decline in the number of pupils in elementary and basic schools by the year 2005 and 2010 gives the opportunity to increase investments per pupil and consequently, improve the quality of education, raise the level of teaching and support innovation in education.

The goal of the development of a learning society should provide criteria against which to assess the the decisions made in the educational policy. All measures taking us away from a learning society should be abandoned.

Report of Human Development in Estonia 1996

Education at a glance: OECD indicators; 1995

Education in Estonia. Statistical Directory; 1990

R. Neudorf, V. Ruus, 1995; Estonian education system in the mirror of statistics.

K. Loogma, R. Ruubel, V. Ruus, E-S. Sarv,R. Vilu, 1998, Estonian Education Scenarios, Ministry of Education, 1997

V.Ruus, K.Loogma, Is the Education System Consolidating or Disrupting the Society?