5th NORDIC-BALTIC CONFERENCE IN REGIONAL SCIENCE
GLOBAL-LOCAL INTERPLAY IN THE BALTIC SEA REGION
Pärnu, Estonia, October 1-4, 1998

Dr. Mika Mannermaa
The Association of Finnish Local and Regional Authorities
Toinen Linja 14, FIN-00530 Helsinki, Finland
Tel.: 358 9 7712510     Fax: 358 9 7712726
E-mail: mika.mannermaa@kuntaliitto.fi

The government of Finland gave a special futures report to the Parliament 1n 1997, which is a new practice in Finland. This paper is based on one of the background studies for that project, and also on Mika Mannermaa`s book "Quantum Jump into the Future?" (1998). It is dealing especially with the meaning of sustainable development, knowledge-intensive society, main global and regional trends, threats and opportunities in the future, and the structural changes, even chaos phenomena which are taking place in the "highly-developed" societies.
It can be maintained that at the moment we live in a period of transition from industrial societies towards something new. It means that old values, ways of thinking, socio-economic organizations, institutions, ways to work and act, and power relationships are breaking down, in such a way that new dominating solutions are not yet born - and perhaps never will be either. The future is possibly a mosaic-like combination of different communities and societies, values, ways of living, religions and cultures. From majorities to minorities is one of the key trends of our times. Regional concentration seems to be another, no matter what are the possibilities of the information society for decentralization.
This period of transition will include great changes in many societal sectors during the next few decades. Along with these essential societal change phenomena belongs a crying need for ecologically sustainable development, which is a must guaranteed by natural laws. All future societies must necessarily be societies of sustainable development.
Another relevant group of change phenomena is the transition from an industrial society dominated by material needs into something new. In this study a model called knowledge-intensive society, KISS society, was developed, with its new economic functions, concepts of work, societal institutions, globalising spheres of activities and so on. No matter whether the question is about satisfaction of basic needs, material needs or immaterial needs, replacing human labor and capital with better knowledge will become the issue. This large group of change phenomena can take shape through many alternative solutions.
The times of great societal transition always mean that one also has to give up something old - values, attitudes, behaviour patterns, organizations and so on. It is necessary to give up so that something new can be born, become stronger, live through its period of dominance and then at some point let its successor take its place. Structural changes experienced in the whole Western world are irreversible processes, having also unpredictable features.
There is also the question of the future of the Nordic Welfare states in this new situation. In these countries it seems that there are two basic scenarios and their supporting forces. Putting it shortly, Scenario 1 is the Transformation of the Nordic Welfare society model for the globalising information society, keeping up the basic values but experiencing changes in structures and processes. Scenario 2 is the Post-liberalistic (or libertarian) model , where the prime movers of development are the market forces. The result of this battle is unclear to me, although Scenario 2 is in lead at the moment.