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GLOBAL-LOCAL INTERPLAY IN THE BALTIC SEA REGION Pärnu, Estonia, October 1-4, 1998  Siamak Baradaran,
Lars Lundqvist
Abstract The independence of the Baltic republics, transitions to market economies in eastern Europe and the entrance of Sweden and Finland into the European Union will induce big changes in infrastructure and mobility in the Baltic Sea region.
The research work for this project is carried out in three stages. A systems view of transportation demand and supply in northern Europe is adopted. In the first stage, a database on infrastructure and transportation patterns in the Baltic Sea region is compiled within a transportation oriented geographical information system (GIS).
The next stage consists of estimation of missing data (transportation flows for person and freight movements) by statistical techniques. The estimation work will be performed mainly for non-Nordic regions as well as intercountry relations where detailed data on traffic patterns are missing. For mobility within the Nordic countries in the region we have access to observed or projected origin-destination (OD) matrices. The Baltic Sea region OD-matrices will be used to generate simulated traffic flows for the entire region.
The last stage will involve analyses (e.g. accessibility studies, network loading) and modelling of transport patterns. The initial analysis will focus on three problems: studies of accessibility, of trade patterns and goods transportation flows, and of the impacts of Öresund bridge between Denmark and Sweden. The project has started in January 1997 and its first stage should be finished by December 1998. Parts of the work on modelling of mobility patterns as well as completing the information system with air transport and shipping will remain for the second stage of the project.
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